Lists of Banks in Singapore

ABN AMRO ASIA MERCHANT BANK (SINGAPORE) LIMITED
ABN AMRO BANK NV
AFC MERCHANT BANK
AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA
AMERICAN EXPRESS BANK LTD
ANZ SINGAPORE LTD
AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
BANCA DI ROMA - SINGAPORE BRANCH
BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.
BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BANK JULIUS BAER (SINGAPORE) LTD.
BANK OF AMERICA SINGAPORE LIMITED
BANK OF AMERICA, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
BANK OF BARODA
BANK OF CHINA LIMITED
BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS CO LTD
BANK OF INDIA
BANK OF NEW YORK, THE
BANK OF NEW ZEALAND
BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA ASIA LIMITED, THE
BANK OF SINGAPORE LTD
BANK OF TAIWAN
BANK PICTET & CIE (ASIA) LTD.
BANK SARASIN-RABO (ASIA) LIMITED
BARCLAYS BANK PLC
BARCLAYS MERCHANT BANK (SINGAPORE) LIMITED
BAYERISCHE HYPO- UND VEREINSBANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
BNP PARIBAS
BNP PARIBAS PEREGRINE (SINGAPORE) LTD
BSI BANK LTD
CALYON
CALYON MERCHANT BANK ASIA LTD
CANADIAN IMPERIAL BANK OF COMMERCE
CBA ASIA LIMITED
CHANG HWA COMMERCIAL BANK LTD
CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION
CIBC ASIA LTD
CIMB BANK BERHAD
CITIBANK NA
CITIBANK SINGAPORE LIMITED
CITICORP INVESTMENT BANK (SINGAPORE) LTD
CLARIDEN BANK
CLSA MERCHANT BANKERS LIMITED
COMMERZBANK (SOUTH EAST ASIA) LTD
COMMERZBANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA
CREDIT SUISSE
DAIWA SECURITIES SMBC SINGAPORE LIMITED
DB INTERNATIONAL (ASIA) LIMITED
DBS BANK
DEUTSCHE BANK AG
DEXIA BANQUE INTERNATIONALE À LUXEMBOURG SA
DEXIA BIL ASIA SINGAPORE LIMITED
DNB NOR ASIA LTD
DRESDNER BANK AG
DVB GROUP MERCHANT BANK (ASIA) LTD
DZ BANK AG
DZ BANK INTERNATIONAL SINGAPORE LTD.
EFG BANK , SINGAPORE BRANCH
FAR EASTERN BANK LTD
FIRST COMMERCIAL BANK
FORTIS BANK SA/NV
FORTIS PRIVATE BANKING SINGAPORE LIMITED
GOVERNMENT OF SINGAPORE INVESTMENT CORPORATION PTE LTD (GIC)
HABIB BANK LTD
HANA BANK
HANG SENG BANK LIMITED
HL BANK
HSBC BANK USA, NA, SINGAPORE BRANCH
HSH NORDBANK AG
HUA NAN COMMERCIAL BANK LTD
HVB SINGAPORE LIMITED
ICICI BANK LIMITED
INDIAN BANK
INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK
INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL BANK OF CHINA LIMITED
ING ASIA PRIVATE BANK LTD
ING WHOLESALE BANKING, SINGAPORE
J.P. MORGAN (S.E.A.) LIMITED
JPMORGAN CHASE BANK NA
KBC BANK (SINGAPORE) LIMITED
KBC BANK NV
KOREA EXCHANGE BANK
KRUNG THAI BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
LAND BANK OF TAIWAN
LANDESBANK BADEN-WURTTEMBERG
LGT BANK IN LIECHTENSTEIN (SINGAPORE) LTD
LLOYDS TSB BANK PLC
LLOYDS TSB MERCHANT BANK LTD.
MEGA INTERNATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANK CO., LTD
MERRILL LYNCH INTERNATIONAL BANK LTD (MERCHANT BANK)
MITSUBISHI UFJ SECURITIES (SINGAPORE) LTD
MITSUBISHI UFJ TRUST AND BANKING CORPORATION
MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK LIMITED
N M ROTHSCHILD AND SONS (SINGAPORE) LTD
NATEXIS BANQUES POPULAIRES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA MERCHANT BANK (SINGAPORE) LTD
NATIONAL BANK OF KUWAIT SAK
NIBC BANK LTD
NOMURA SINGAPORE LTD
NORDDEUTSCHE LANDESBANK GIROZENTRALE
NORDEA BANK FINLAND PLC, SINGAPORE BRANCH
NORINCHUKIN BANK, THE
OCBC BANK
ONG FIRST TRADITION PTE LTD
PHILIPPINE NATIONAL BANK
PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
PT BANK NEGARA INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK, SINGAPORE BRANCH
RABOBANK
RAIFFEISEN ZENTRALBANK OESTERREICH AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA
ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND PLC, THE
SANPAOLO IMI S.P.A.
SHINHAN BANK
SKANDINAVISKA ENSKILDA BANKEN AB (PUBL)
SKANDINAVISKA ENSKILDA BANKEN S.A. SINGAPORE BRANCH
SOCIETE GENERALE
SOCIETE GENERALE BANK & TRUST
STANDARD CHARTERED BANK
STANDARD MERCHANT BANK (ASIA) LIMITED
STATE BANK OF INDIA
STATE STREET BANK AND TRUST COMPANY
SVENSKA HANDELSBANKEN
THE KOREA DEVELOPMENT BANK
THE TORONTO-DOMINION BANK
TORONTO DOMINION (SEA) LIMITED
UBS AG
UCO BANK
UNION DE BANQUES ARABES ET FRANCAISES
UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD
UOB ASIA LIMITED
UTI BANK LTD
WESTLB AG
WESTLB ASIA PACIFIC LIMITED
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION
WESTPAC SINGAPORE LTD
WOORI BANK

Secret Societies ?

The 5 most important "Secret Investment
Societies" in America

If you'd like to make a small fortune in America today, we believe the only safe and easy way to do it is to invest in these 5 opportunities that I call 'Secret Societies.'

Keep in mind: These 'Societies' all follow the same principles as the 'Pasadena Society' – the oldest and best-known company among them. They operate under the utmost secrecy, which is why most people have no clue they exist. And they all have one simple goal: To make huge profits for themselves and their shareholders (like you and me).

For example...

'The Brigham Street Society,' a name we've given our first investment opportunity, was founded in 1978 by two friends who attended Harvard Business School. Housed in a turn-of-the-century Neoclassical mansion on Brigham Street in Salt Lake City, Utah, the Society has helped ordinary Americans turn each $100 invested into well over $280,000.
(That's an annualized return of 32.8%... 10% more than the 'Pasadena Society' has made for its investors every single year since inception.)

Since 2000, the 'Brigham Street Society' has shown its investors gains of 592% – more than 74-times the gains of the S&P 500 index. And over the past 10 years, gains have been 808%.

The 'Brigham St. Society' focuses on debt convertibles, bankruptcies, spin-offs, and other sophisticated strategies... Plus, they own wineries, casinos, timberland, and banks.

This group is probably the most secretive Investment Society in America today. They completely shun any media coverage... In fact, when Fortune called recently, the Society secretary hung up without even bothering to learn why the magazine was calling.

'The Mt. Kisco Society' is a name we've given a company run by one of the 25 richest men in America. The 'Society,' named after the place where the head of the organization works, owns casinos in Atlantic City and Las Vegas (one of which is the tallest building west of the Mississippi River).
It also owns residential real estate developments in Florida, New York, and Massachusetts... a grand hotel in Martha's Vineyard... and one of the most profitable home-furnishing businesses in the world (it's been around for 200 years).

Over the past 4 years, the 'Society's' investors have made more than 18-times the stock market as a whole.

It simply doesn't get better than this in the investment world.

What we call 'The California Club' is another 'Secret Society' that has large operations in California. It has shown its investors a whopping 1,765% gain since the beginning of 2003.
I'm sure I don't have to tell you that there's no bigger trend in the world right now than fighting the causes of global warming with renewable energy. Well, whether you believe we are causing the Earth to warm or not, there's a 'Secret Investment Society' in America that focuses almost exclusively on these government-backed opportunities.

They own very profitable operations in 15 states, including: Arizona, California, New York, Nevada, Oregon, Maryland, Indiana, and Washington.

Most importantly, members are seeing extraordinary returns — more than 26-times what they would have seen by investing in the stock market as a whole.

'The Canary Warf Estate' is our name for a 'Secret Group' that owns significant amounts of the famous Canary Warf London office complex. The Group has given shareholders 884% gains since the beginning of 2000.
This organization focuses on owning many of the big and important things that keep the economy going. For example, they own 14 office buildings in New York, 2 in Boston, 32 in Washington DC, and 22 in Los Angeles. They own 129 power generating stations in North America... and over 6,000 miles of power transmission lines, which brings electricity into homes and businesses.

This "Secret Society" is a money-making machine. In the last quarter, they made 49% more profits than the same quarter from the year before. And they have given shareholders 513% gains since the beginning of 2003.

'The Boardwalk Club,' a 'Secret Investment Society' we've named after one of their most profitable assets, has given shareholders the opportunity to make 619% gains since the year 2000.
This group focuses on some of the most luxurious goods and investments in America. For example, they own 16 hotels in America's most exotic locations: Santa Monica, Miami Beach, Beverly Hills, San Diego, and Denver, just to name a few. And they own one of the most famous watch brands in the world (I'm sure you've heard of it before). They also own a very profitable insurance business, and an oil drilling operation.

The bottom line is this: These 5 'Secret Investment Societies' focus on different investments, but what they all have in common is they are extremely profitable... and can help you live a rich retirement.

As I mentioned, because these 'Societies' are publicly traded companies, each one is required to register with the U.S. government. This gives you an easy and completely anonymous way to become a shareholder and make a lot of money as a result.

Source: Daily Wealth Investment Research

Singapore Financial Info

Today, the financial services sector accounts for 11.6% of Singapore's Gross Domestic Product, and provides employment for 5% of the population, making it the highest value-added service industry in Singapore. Indeed, data from the Department of Statistics show the financial services industry has the highest average monthly earnings amongst all industry segments in Singapore.



With sustained economic growth, employment in Singapore rose by a record high of 81,500 in the first six months of 2006, about two-thirds more than the 49,500 in the same period of 2005. The growth is across all major sectors, including the financial services sector.


Key facts on Singapore's Financial Sector
- http://financeconnectsingapore.com/financesector.php

To see the full list of active financial institutions operating in Singapore
- http://financeconnectsingapore.com/maininstitutions.php

To upgrade your financial training or to get financial certifications
- http://financeconnectsingapore.com/maximise.php

Career Opportunities
http://www.contactsingapore.org.sg/home/index.php/eng/working_in_singapore__1/find_a_job_in_singapore

Intrinsic Value of Gold

THE INTRINSIC VALUE OF GOLD

Intrinsic Value Investing

When it comes to books written about investing in the stock market, two of the classics are "Security Analysis" and "The Intelligent Investor", both of which were written by Benjamin Graham and published in 1934 and 1949 respectively. Graham was a very successful investor in his own right, but is also well known as the mentor of Warren Buffett. Buffett built on the foundations provided by Graham's investment philosophy by adding a qualitative dimension to the completely quantitative approach adopted by his teacher. However, the basis of the success of these stock market legends was essentially the same - the realisation that the "intrinsic value" of a company was independent of its market price.

According to Graham, the market does not determine value. It is a "voting machine" in which countless people register choices that are the product partly of reason and partly of emotion. For most stocks the market tells you every minute of every day what it thinks those stocks are worth. The price that the market assigns may be much higher, much lower, or approximately equal to the intrinsic value. It is this difference between market price and intrinsic value which provides opportunities to investors astute enough to recognise it - the greater the difference the greater the opportunity. However, an investor who allows himself to become so concerned by a falling market price that he sells out has blown any advantage he may have had. "You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you".

The above thinking has been shown to work with phenomenal success when applied to stock market investment, but can it also be applied to investing in gold ? The intrinsic value of a stock can be determined using quantitative measures such as profit, net working capital, cashflow, and net tangible assets, and qualitative considerations such as the strength of the company's management. However, does gold have an intrinsic value which can be different from its market price and, if so, how could we go about calculating it ?


The Intrinsic Value of Gold

Supply Considerations

With such an enormous number of variables
affecting its price, including the
emotional response of individuals and the
whims of politicians throughout the
world, how can we possibly forecast a
future dollars per ounce gold price?









When there is an imbalance in supply versus demand, prices adjust to correct that imbalance. For example, if demand exceeds supply then prices will increase to the point where demand reduces or supply increases, thus correcting the imbalance. Because the "load" is forever changing, prices are continually adjusting. Vronsky's essay on gold's supply/demand dynamics in the "Analysis" section of the Gold Eagle website discusses the imbalance which has existed in the gold market for some time, with commercial demand greatly outstripping worldwide production. Had a similar situation prevailed with any other commodity then soaring prices would undoubtedly result. However, the fundamental difference between gold and all other commodities is that gold is not consumed, it is accumulated. Nearly 100% of all the gold mined in the history of the world forms part of today's aboveground gold stock. The total amount of this aboveground stock (currently around 120,000 tonnes) is an available source of supply at any time. During the past few weeks we have had some news regarding gold supply which has supposedly caused some fluctuations in the gold price. Firstly, Switzerland announced that it would sell some of its gold reserves (about 400 tonnes over a 10 year period). Secondly, the Busang gold deposit, which had been reported to contain up to 200 million ounces of gold, is now thought to be worthless. One event added future gold supply to the market whilst the other removed it. In my opinion both events were just "noise" as the amount of gold involved was trivial in comparison to the total aboveground supply of gold.

Another important point to note regarding the aboveground gold stock is that it increases at a fairly constant rate of around 1.7% per annum (during the last 50 years the largest annual increase was 2.1% whilst the smallest was 1.4%). Irrespective of what technological and political changes occur in the future, or how many more Busangs (real or otherwise) are discovered, it is reasonable to assume that the total supply of gold will continue to grow at an average rate of 1.7% per annum. In fact, technological improvements and vast new discoveries will be needed to maintain this growth rate.

Estimating a Future Gold Price

In other words, confidence in
US dollars is currently at a
historic high or, put another
way, gold is at its lowest
levels in 25 years relative to
the US dollar.









Further to the above we should be able to estimate, with a fair degree of accuracy, what the aboveground gold stock will be at some time in the future. It should also be possible to estimate the future commercial (fashion jewelry, industry, etc.) demand for gold. However, these considerations are only a small part of the equation. Much of the aboveground gold stock is held for monetary purposes and the willingness of the owners of this gold to sell at a particular price is dependent upon countless economic, political and psychological concerns. The willingness of others to purchase gold for monetary reasons at a certain price is dependent upon similar considerations. With such an enormous number of variables affecting its price, including the emotional response of individuals and the whims of politicians throughout the world, how can we possibly forecast a future dollars per ounce gold price? Yet another problem, in fact the very heart of the problem in forecasting a future gold price, is that we measure the price in terms of something which is constantly changing, that is, the US dollar (or any other national currency). Every day the US dollar changes its character due to changes in its quantity and quality, with its true value linked to something as fragile and fluctuating as faith in the financial and political system.

Although we cannot reliably estimate a future gold price, what we can do is calculate the relative values of gold and US dollars using the Fear Index. The Fear Index was developed by James Turk as a means of numerically expressing the competitive relationship between gold and dollars, and is calculated as follows :

Fear Index = (US Gold Reserve) X (Market Price of Gold)
M3

Currently, with the gold price around $350 per ounce, M3 (total US money supply) of $5024.5 billion as of weekend 3rd March 1997, and a US gold reserve of 261.8 million ounces, we can calculate the Fear Index to be 1.82%.

The lower the Fear Index the higher the value of dollars relative to gold, that is, the higher the level of confidence (or the lower the level of fear) in paper currency. To put the above calculated figure of 1.82% into perspective, this is the lowest value for the Fear Index since 1972. In fact, the last 3 months have seen the Fear Index move below 2% for the first time since 1972. In other words, confidence in US dollars is currently at a historic high or, put another way, gold is at its lowest levels in 25 years relative to the US dollar.

I would also be interested in calculating a modified Fear Index where the total above ground stock of gold is substituted for the US Gold Reserve. However, this will have to be the subject of a separate discussion.

Gold Investment Based On Value

The above discussion suggests that although we cannot estimate a future gold price with any degree of accuracy, we can at least determine that gold is currently very cheap and should be purchased by investors seeking value. However, I believe that many people who identify that gold currently represents excellent value will lose money in their attempts to profit from this realisation. This is because they will attempt to profit from their well-founded conclusion via short term trading. The following quote from Benjamin Graham was written about stock speculation, but it can be equally well applied to the short term trading of commodities : "....speculation is largely a matter of A trying to decide what B, C and D are likely to think - with B, C and D trying to do the same". It is likely that many of the investors who purchase gold or gold related investments based on sound fundamental reasoning will sell out at a loss because they were unable to predict what others would do in the short term.

Milhouse
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/guru329.html

Winner of Best Local Hedge Fund (Singapore)- BEST??

Octagon Capital is the largest boutique quantitative investment company in Singapore. It is founded and majority owned by the partners of the firm – Nelson Chia and Lam Poh Min, both of whom worked previously for the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC).

Octagon currently manages two Cayman domiciled funds namely the Octagon Pan Asia Fund and the Octagon Tactical Short Fund. The Octagon Pan Asia Fund is awarded the "Best Local Hedge Fund (Singapore)" at Asian Masters of Hedge Fund Awards 2007.

Octagon’s global clientele comprises largely institutions such as government agencies, endowment, family offices, fund of funds and financial institutions. The company adopts a quantitative and systematic approach to investing, believing that investment discipline is the key to consistently superior risk-adjusted returns. Its investment philosophy centers on the following 4 principles:

1. Breadth - exploit breadth of opportunity set to improve risk-adjusted returns
2. Expectations - focus on identifying market expectations and capitalising on them
3. Asymmetry - rely on return asymmetry to generate superior performance
4. Defence - employ strict defence mechanisms so as 'to win by not losing'

OCTAGON PAN ASIA FUND Octagon Pan Asia Fund is awarded the "Best Local Hedge Fund (Singapore)" at Asian Masters of Hedge Fund Awards 2007. It is a Cayman-domiciled long/short equity fund that invests across Asia. The current investment universe consists of 14 markets, namely Australia, China/Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, covering 2,000+ stocks across all market capitalisations. The strategy aims to generate attractive absolute returns, while preserving capital and controlling downside volatility. Investment decisions are made via a technically-based systematic process. The key driver is a trend following model which is premised on the assumption that profitable trends will exists in a large and heterogeneous universe. Accordingly, the model seeks to identify the best trending stocks to be bought and sold based on a proprietary momentum measure. This is complemented by qualitative judgment, particularly used in portfolio construction and execution, in view of the implementation constraints in Asia. The strategy is likely to have a slight net long bias over time. Gross exposure is not expected to exceed 140%. Net exposure will range from -40% to +100%.

Note: Eurekahedge Asian HF index is not adjusted for survivorship bias and is provided for information only

The Best Place to Be?

Interview With Jim Rogers: 'The Best Place To Be Is In Commodities'
Posted on Apr 10th, 2007

Hard Assets Investor submits: Jim Rogers (pictured) is widely known as one of the most insightful – and irreverent – commodities bulls in the market today. Rogers, who made his (first) fortune as George Soros’ partner in the Quantum Fund, has been championing commodities to investors since at least 2004, when his book “Hot Commodities” laid out the case for a long-term bull market in hard assets.

Rogers, who runs his own index to capture the growth in commodities, argues that the commodities market runs in what might be called “supercycles”; 10-20 year stretches when pent-up demand meets the long lead times required to bring on new supply, sending prices steadily higher. With China and India growing fast, he thinks the current commodities bull market has plenty of room to go..

The editor’s of Hard Assets Investor recently spoke by phone with Rogers, to get his view of the current situation in the commodities market.

HardAssetsInvestor [HAI]: With recent fluctuations in the commodities market, are you sticking with your “supercycle” theory? Where are we in the cycle?

Jim Rogers (Rogers): Supercycle is your term, not mine, so I won’t say that. But I will say that we are in a bull market for commodities.

We are in a bull market for commodities because supply and demand got terribly out of whack years ago, and they are still out of whack.

I also wouldn’t call it a theory. Nobody has discovered a gigantic oil field for thirty years. That’s not a theory; that’s a basic fact. In the meantime, demand for oil has been going up for many years. That’s not a theory, either; that’s a simple fact. Likewise, there has been one lead mine open in the world for the past twenty years, and the last lead smelter was built in the U.S. in 1979. I could continue: the number of acres devoted to wheat farming has been declining for 20 years.

Those are simple facts that lead me—and, I think, any rational person—to conclude that we’re in a bull market for commodities that has a ways to go.

HAI: What about the recent pullback?

Rogers: There have been consolidations along the way; there always will be. In the stock bull during the 1980s and 1990s, there were huge corrections that scared the pants off some people. But the people who really knew what was going on, they bought more stock during those consolidations, and they did well. It was the same during the gold bull market in the 1970s. There was a stretch when gold went down every month for two years, and eventually ended down 50-plus percent. Everyone was scared. But then gold turned around and went straight back to $820/ounce, a new high.

That’s how markets work. There will be awesome corrections in the commodities markets during this period of time, and I hope that I’m smart enough to recognize them for what they are.

HAI: The market panicked when China’s stock market fell in February. Was that a blip, or signs of a bubble beginning to burst?

Rogers: Anybody who sold stock in the West or in Japan because China had a 9 percent drop in one day is a little bit nuts. The Chinese market has almost zero percent impact on the rest of the world. Foreigners can’t invest in China, and the Chinese can’t invest here. The idea that what goes on in China’s market matters to us is nuts.

I’m sure that people worry about China’s growth. That’s understandable. The Chinese government is trying to slow down growth. But let’s say that they succeed, and that China’s growth slows from 10 percent GDP growth to 3 percent GDP. That’s still growth. People still need to buy more tires and more eggs.

HAI: The commodities markets have been in deep contango recently. Is that situation permanent, and is it harming the thesis to invest in commodities? Are investors better off in physicals?

Rogers: Some sectors of the market have been in contango, and some have not. I’m not sure I agree with your assertion.

HAI: I was referring specifically to energy.

Rogers: Well, energy is just three or four commodities out of fifty…

Oil and energy have been in contango recently for a variety of reasons, and partly because of the index funds. I’ve seen contango come and go for decades. Usually, when the market gets out of whack, the people who need to buy the oil come along and take advantage of it. If people come along and there’s contango, people will make money off it [presumably, buy buying oil today and storing it to sell in the future]. Likewise, when there’s backwardation. People who need oil will find the best price and the best place to buy oil, and they will do so. They take advantage of the discrepancies and then the discrepancies disappear.

HAI: What are the most pressing issues that commodity investors should understand?

Rogers: They should understand that until somebody brings on a lot of supply, commodities will do well. If people start seeing windmills on every roof and solar panels on every house, then maybe this [commodities boom] is coming to an end. If somebody discovers a gigantic gas field in Berlin, maybe this will start to change. Investors need to watch and see when and if new sources of supply develop.

Bur really, short of worldwide economic collapse, the best place to be is in commodities. There is no shortage of stocks. The world is cranking out new stocks every day. No one is cranking out new lead mines every day. People need to get a basic understanding of supply and demand, and then they’ll figure out what the big picture is, and they will make money.

HAI: Are agricultural commodities a different animal from metals and energy, in that their supply is more elastic. Does that change the analysis there?

Rogers: They are not much more elastic. It takes five years for a coffee tree to mature. If you decide to go into the coffee business today, it might take five or seven years before you come to market. It takes ten years to bring on a new coal mine, but many plantations take a long time, too.

In theory, we can increase our acreage devoted to corn, as America did recently [per the USDA’s perspective plantings report]. But farmers did that at the expense of soybeans and cotton and everything else. It’s not as if the world has created a lot more land. Even when farmers do bring on more acreage, it takes a few years and it costs money and time.

Moreover, when you have acreage lying fallow, it’s always the marginal acreage. When farmers take acreage out of production, they keep the good acreage in production. Doubling the number of acres devoted to corn will not double production. Yes, in theory, you can bring on more corn quickly. But it is at the expense of other things.

HAI: Does active management have a role in the commodities space?

Rogers: The world has demonstrated repeatedly that index investors outperform 80 percent of active managers year after year after year. If you can find a good active manager who can beat the market consistently, invest with her, and introduce me to her, too. But my index fund has been running since August 1998, and it has done 500 percent better than the average CTA over that time.

HAI: Last year, we saw the London Metals Exchange intervene in the nickel markets. With supplies tight for many commodities, will we see that happen again? Will it become more frequent?

Rogers: I suspect it will happen less. The more it happens, the more credibility the exchange loses. With the internet and electronic trading, it’s very easy for a new market to develop. And any exchange where that happens frequently will lose its market.